Here’s another notion regarding internet blackjack that warrants some discussion. I’m talking about card counting, and the thought that regardless of how strong your card counting skills are, or what gambling system or disciplined start-stop system you’ve worked out for yourself, that you can only “beat” the casino if you play over an extended period of time, and that you shouldn’t bother with these methods if you’re only playing in the short run. Part of this theory is based on the fact that simulations of card counting involve thousands (or perhaps millions!) of trials.
And, to take it a step further, the theory contents that players in reality can never get into that “long run” to begin with, so the practices of counting cards, ending your session in the middle of a “cold” or “hot” run, stopping your play after you’ve reached a certain monetary goal, or leaving after you’ve lost a certain number of hands… are all useless and worthless strategies because of that.
Fortunately for the casual or slightly more experienced internet black jack player, this just isn’t true. The truth is, the statistical advantage of implementing at least card counting doesn’t change from hand-to-hand, not even in the slightest, so it’s in reality impossible for the odds of you beating the casino increasing as the number of hands increases.
Even a novice player must realize with all things equal, a casino such as The Bellagio has the statistical advantage and is going to beat you – over a long period of time and a short period of time. Learning to count cards flips the advantage in the player’s favor. The player has this advantage every time he plays. Will you ever play a billion hands of blackjack? No. Does it matter? No, it doesn’t.
Experts will content running a simulation of a million hands is useful in determining whether a combination of black jack strategies will work “over the long run,” but the truth is the statistics don’t change from adding more hands. It creates a wider scope of data to analyze, but once this is established (or estimated), the result still applies the same to 10 hands as it does 1,000 hands.
You know what the major advantage for a blackjack casino is against a successful card counter? It’s their ability to put up more money than you, and eat their losses in stride. If the casino takes a major short-term loss, it won’t hurt it nearly as much as if it happened to a player. That, and big guys in double-breasted black suits.